Buttonwood: Bumper buy-backs
梧桐树专栏：丰厚的回购
A new paper argue that to forecast share returns, buy-backs as well as dividends must be counted.
一项新研究表明，想要预测股票收益，必须计算回购和股息。
What is the point of buying shares?
买股票的精髓是什么?
Ultimately investors must hope that the cash they receive from the company will offer anattractive long-term return.
最终投资者必须期望他们从企业获得的现金能够提供有吸引力的长期回报。
Over the long run, reinvested dividends rather than capital gains have comprised the vast bulkof returns.
从长期来看，相对于资本收益，股息再投资可以带来大量的回报。
But since the 1980s American firms have increasingly used share buy-backs, which have taxadvantages for some investors.
但是二十世纪八十年代以来，美国企业却越来越多地使用股票回购，因为对于一些投资者来说股票回购有着税收优势。
Buy-backs have been higher than dividend payments in eight of the past ten years.
在过去十年中，有八年回购一直高于股息支付。
In a buy-back, investors receive cash for a proportion of their holdings.
在回购中，投资者根据自己的持股比例获得现金收益。
A new paper in the Financial Analysts Journal argues that adding this to dividend receipts tocalculate a total payout yield gives a better estimate of future returns than the dividendyield alone.
《金融分析师期刊》的一篇新论文认为，将股票回购加到股息单据上来计算总股利收益率，相比于单独地估算股息率，能够更好的估算出未来收益。
It also reveals a much better match between stockmarket performance and overall economicgrowth.
这也揭示了股市表现与整体经济增长之间更好的匹配关系。
Using data going back to 1871, the authors find that the average dividend yield has been4.5% and the total payout yield 4.89%.
把数据追溯到1871年，研究者发现当时的平均股息率为4.5%，总股利收益率为4.89%。
Since 1970 the dividend yield has dropped to 3.03%, but the total payout yield has averaged4.26%.
从1970年以来，股息率已经跌到3.03%，但是总股利收益率平均为4.26%。
Looked at on that basis, the overall income return from shares has been not that far belowhistorical levels.
从这个基础来看，整体股票收益还未远低于历史水平。
The return from shares can be broken down into three components: the initial income yield; growth in the income stream; and any change in valuation.
股票收益可以被分解成三个组成部分：初始收益、收益的增长和估值的变化。
(If shares become more expensive, the yield will fall.
(股价越高，初始收益率就会越低。
Say the dividend is $6 and the share price is $100, the initial yield will be 6%.
也就是说股息是6美元，股价为100美元，初始收益率就是6%。
If the shares rise to $120, the yield will fall to 5% but the investors will have made a capitalgain.)
如果股价上升到120美元，初始收益率就会跌到5%，但投资者这时已经获得资本收益了。)
Over the long run, changes in valuation levels do not make much difference to the return.
长期来看，估值水平的变动不会对收益产生太大的影响。
What has driven stockmarket returns in recent decades is that total payouts have grown fasterthan before.
最近几十年，推动股市收益的是总股息远超以往的飞速增长。
The growth rate since 1871 has been 2.05%; since 1970, it has been 3.44%.
到1871以来，总股息增长率已经为2.05%，1970年以来，增长率达3.44%。
That is probably because of strong corporate profits, which recently hit a post-1945 high as aproportion of America's GDP.
这可能是企业强劲的利润导致的，并且最近在美国GDP所占比例中达到1945年后的新高。
An obvious apparent difference between dividendsand buy-backs is that every shareholder gets thedividend but not all of them tend to take part in abuy-back.
股息与回购的明显区别是每个持股人都会得到分红，但并不是所有的持股人都打算参与回购。
But theory suggests investors should gain from ashare buy-back even if they do not take part.
从理论上讲，投资者即使不参与，也会从股票回购中获利。
The buy-back will reduce the number of shares in issue, giving existing investors aproportionately larger claim on the profits and assets of the company.
回购将会减少股票发行量，从而让现有的投资者对公司利润和资产方面有更大的索求权。
Over time, buy-backs are offset by the shares companies issue to make acquisitions andhonour executive share-option schemes.
一段时间后，回购股份会被企业发行的用来收购和承兑执行股票期权计划的股票所抵消。
In the half century since 1970 new share issuance has exceeded buy-backs.
在1970年之后的半个世纪中，新股发行量已经超过了回购量。
But in the ten years to 2014, on average, buy-backs have predominated.
但是截止到2014年的这十年中，平均来说，回购已经占据了主导地位。
The authors also experiment with using the total payout yield as a yardstick of whether stocksare dear or cheap.
研究者做了个实验，以总股息收益率作为标准，衡量股票价格是否便宜。
By averaging the yield over ten years, they work out the cyclically-adjusted total yield(CATY) and compare it with the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), whichaverages corporate profits.
他们通过将十多年的收益率平均化计算，得出了周期调整总收益率(CATY)，并将其与表示企业平均利润的周期调整市盈率(CAPE)相比较。
They find that CATY is at least as good as CAPE in predicting market movements.
他们发现CATY至少和CAPE一样可以很好的预测市场走势。
As for the link with economic growth, it is often hard to find a short-term correlation betweenthis and stockmarket performance, which tends to be much more volatile.
至于股市表现与经济增长之间的联系，人们很难找出其中的短期相关性，因为股市波动越来越大。
But the authors found that, over the very long run, growth in the aggregate payout fromAmerican equities has matched that of the country's GDP, and payout-per-share growth hasmatched that of GDP per head.
但是研究者发现，长期来看，美国股票的总股息增长已经与国家GDP 的增长相吻合，每股股息增长也与人均GDP增长相当。
There is no guarantee that this relationship will continue.
没有人可以保证这种关系是否将会继续保持。
Payouts lagged a long way behind GDP in the second half of the 20th century, and have onlycaught up because of the surge in buy-backs.
到二十世纪下半叶，美国股息增长还远远落后于GDP，现在只是由于回购的激增才赶了上来。
And the stockmarket is much more international than it used to be; almost half the revenues ofS&P 500 companies come from outside America.
股市比以往更加国际化，因为标准普尔500指数企业的收入几乎一半来自于美国国外。
Focusing on total payouts allows the authors to be a bit more optimistic in their forecasts offuture returns than the traditional dividend-based approach would suggest.
关注股票总派息会使研究者对于未来收益的预测比传统的基于股息的预测方法更乐观。
Historically, total payouts have grown by around 1.67% per year, compared with 1.46% fordividends alone.
从历史上看，相比于只增长了1.46%的股息，总派息每年大约增长1.67%。
Combine that with the current payout yield and you get an expected future real return of5.1%, compared with just 3.6% if dividends alone are used.
如果把总派息与当前的股息收益相结合进行估算，你将会获得5.1%的预期实际收益率，而如果只考虑股息，那就只有3.6%的预期实际收益率了。
Whether even that return, however, would be enough to meet defined-benefit pensionpromises, particularly those made to their workers by state and local governments in America, is another question.
然而，即使是这样的回报，是否足以满足养老金福利的承诺，尤其是美国州和地方政府给他们的工人的承诺，这是另一个问题。
重点词组：
1.as well as 也
例句:They visited some factories, hospitals as wellas the school.
他们参观了这所学校，还参观了工厂和医院。
2.a proportion of ...比例
例句:In a proportion of patients there was also evidence of a concurrent autoimmunedisorder.
在部分病人中还发现了同时发生的自身免疫性疾病。
3.growth rate 增长率
例句:Our average growth rate is lower than the US, India and China.
我们的平均增长率低于美国、印度和中国。
4.going back to 返回;追溯到
例句:I now look forward to going back to work as soon as possible.
我现在渴望尽早回到工作岗位。
5.work out 计算出;解决
例句:It is proving hard to work out the value ofbankrupt firms 'assets.
清算破产公司的资产值其实很困难。
6.compared with 与...相比
例句:He's a pygmy when compared with great musicians.
他和伟大的音乐家相比就成了侏儒。
7.caught up 抓住
例句:After a pursuit lasting all day we finally caught up with them.
经过一整天的追赶，我们终于赶上了他们。
8.economic growth 经济增长
例句:High interest rates have stunted economic growth.
高利率已经阻碍了经济的增长。
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